FUTURE MILITARY STRATEGIES: GLOBAL CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING LANDSCAPE
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Recent geopolitical events shed light on the challenges and strategic considerations facing NATO armed forces. Key points are defence spending, geostrategic positioning, and the evolving global context:
Defence Spending and NATO Benchmark
Concerns over the NATO counties defence spending falling below the NATO benchmark of 2%. There is a call for increased investment to meet collective defence standards, emphasizing the importance of aligning with NATO commitments.
Geostrategic Position and Alliance Dynamics
As part of NATO, nations enjoy a secure geostrategic position, coordinating efforts with Joint Force Command Naples. The alliances with neighbouring countries contribute to integrated air and missile defence coverage, fostering a sense of security. However, since not many countries are a frontline state, we all should acknowledge the need for vigilance and preparedness.
Ukraine Conflict and Strategic Realignment:
The recent conflict in Ukraine prompts a strategic realignment, challenging initial scepticism about potential aggression. We have to learn from historical events and past wartime experiences to form future strategies.
Future Military Strategy:
Future military strategies are likely to be influenced by cultural alignments, values, and purpose within the NATO armed forces. The focus is and will be on preparing the population and military for the evolving nature of warfare. Aspects such as cognitive resilience, multi-domain operations, digital transformation, and innovation will be critical components in adapting to the rapidly changing global landscape.
Real-life cases: On 10 March 2022 at 23:01 CET, an unidentified Soviet-made Tu-141 reconnaissance UAV crashed in Zagreb, the capital of Croatia. The origin of the drone is presumed to be connected to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The point of impact was located only 10 km from the nuclear plant in Krško as the UAV was heading in its direction. Another example is a Chinese cargo ship that ‘uncontrollably’ landed and closed the port of Trieste (ITA) while its crew was not cooperating. Both cases may easily be considered as potential fragments of hybrid warfare.
As we are preparing for an uncertain future, the necessity of clear strategic objectives, training for NATO interoperability, and advancements in cognitive warfare and digital transformation is clearer than any before.
Multi-Domain Challenge:
Likely the fundamental question is how to approach multi-domain operations. Should our strategy be tactical, operational, or should we dive deep into the strategic level of multi-domain integration? And – as one of the most important questions – is, how should such integration be conducted.
Command and Control Challenges:
The need for a seamless integrated structure is a recurring theme. Given the past event and challenges, we are shifting our approach, opting not to build integrated structures but to work in an integrated way. This shift highlights the ongoing struggle to find the most effective command and control mechanisms for navigating the moving sands of modern conflicts.
Innovation and Cognitive Shift:
Our educational systems are undergoing a transformation to encourage innovative thinking. Students are now compelled to think beyond traditional frameworks. For example, students in Slovenia were tasked with producing defence strategy on a single page, a testament to the push for concise and adaptable strategic thinking in the face of evolving challenges.
Adapting to Modern Technologies:
Modern (and in many cases disruptive) technologies, especially artificial intelligence, emerge as critical considerations. It’s not just about targeting applications; it’s about understanding how these technologies will reshape our world in the coming years. The challenge lies in comprehending and preparing for the profound changes that disruptive innovations bring to the modern warfare.
Wargaming as an Educational Tool:
Wargaming could be considered as a pivotal aspect of strategic development. By modelling potential scenarios based on real cases, the military aims to educate civilians, leadership, and officers alike. The emphasis on using war games as a tool to shape mindsets represents a holistic approach to strategic thinking, ensuring a dynamic and responsive military mindset.
Key takeaways:
Wargaming, digital transformation, innovation mindset, disruption, doctrinal alignment, and strategic resilience emerge as the pillars of evolving strategy. The continuous flow of strategic thinkers becomes crucial, emphasizing the importance of adaptability to avoid stagnation in the ever-changing nature of modern warfare.
FUTURE MILITARY STRATEGIES: GLOBAL CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING LANDSCAPE
Recent geopolitical events shed light on the challenges and strategic considerations facing NATO armed forces. Key points are defence spending, geostrategic positioning, and the evolving global context:
Concerns over the NATO counties defence spending falling below the NATO benchmark of 2%. There is a call for increased investment to meet collective defence standards, emphasizing the importance of aligning with NATO commitments.
As part of NATO, nations enjoy a secure geostrategic position, coordinating efforts with Joint Force Command Naples. The alliances with neighbouring countries contribute to integrated air and missile defence coverage, fostering a sense of security. However, since not many countries are a frontline state, we all should acknowledge the need for vigilance and preparedness.
The recent conflict in Ukraine prompts a strategic realignment, challenging initial scepticism about potential aggression. We have to learn from historical events and past wartime experiences to form future strategies.
Future military strategies are likely to be influenced by cultural alignments, values, and purpose within the NATO armed forces. The focus is and will be on preparing the population and military for the evolving nature of warfare. Aspects such as cognitive resilience, multi-domain operations, digital transformation, and innovation will be critical components in adapting to the rapidly changing global landscape.
Another example is a Chinese cargo ship that ‘uncontrollably’ landed and closed the port of Trieste (ITA) while its crew was not cooperating. Both cases may easily be considered as potential fragments of hybrid warfare.
As we are preparing for an uncertain future, the necessity of clear strategic objectives, training for NATO interoperability, and advancements in cognitive warfare and digital transformation is clearer than any before.
Likely the fundamental question is how to approach multi-domain operations. Should our strategy be tactical, operational, or should we dive deep into the strategic level of multi-domain integration? And – as one of the most important questions – is, how should such integration be conducted.
The need for a seamless integrated structure is a recurring theme. Given the past event and challenges, we are shifting our approach, opting not to build integrated structures but to work in an integrated way. This shift highlights the ongoing struggle to find the most effective command and control mechanisms for navigating the moving sands of modern conflicts.
Our educational systems are undergoing a transformation to encourage innovative thinking. Students are now compelled to think beyond traditional frameworks. For example, students in Slovenia were tasked with producing defence strategy on a single page, a testament to the push for concise and adaptable strategic thinking in the face of evolving challenges.
Modern (and in many cases disruptive) technologies, especially artificial intelligence, emerge as critical considerations. It’s not just about targeting applications; it’s about understanding how these technologies will reshape our world in the coming years. The challenge lies in comprehending and preparing for the profound changes that disruptive innovations bring to the modern warfare.
Wargaming could be considered as a pivotal aspect of strategic development. By modelling potential scenarios based on real cases, the military aims to educate civilians, leadership, and officers alike. The emphasis on using war games as a tool to shape mindsets represents a holistic approach to strategic thinking, ensuring a dynamic and responsive military mindset.
Key takeaways:
Wargaming, digital transformation, innovation mindset, disruption, doctrinal alignment, and strategic resilience emerge as the pillars of evolving strategy. The continuous flow of strategic thinkers becomes crucial, emphasizing the importance of adaptability to avoid stagnation in the ever-changing nature of modern warfare.